The long and short of it is that Erika is struggling in the face of dry air and moderate wind shear. Yesterday, I wrote a long-ish, detailed discussion about why Tropical Storm Erika could turn into a Very Big Deal or fall apart into a blob of nothingness, and why the next day or two is crucial to what the storm will do when (and if) it approaches Florida. With all of those births, all of those job transfers, and all of those fresh starts, it’s safe to say that many (if not most) of them have never gone through a hurricane in the hurricane capital of the United States. Florida was home to about 17.7 million people back in 2005, and now the state is home to almost 20 million people, which is an increase of about two million people since the last hurricane. That’s good in a sense, but it’s also scary because ten years is a long time for people to forget what to do and how to act when a storm is on its way. No hurricanes! There aren’t even all that many storms. The lines are color-coded based on the strength of the cyclone along that part of its path-green indicates that the cyclone was a tropical storm, while blue indicates that it was a tropical depression. Now, here’s that same map showing tracks of all tropical cyclones in the area between 2006 and today. They’ve seen so many hurricanes since we began keeping records that it’s hard to make out the state on the map. In other words, you’re looking at the track of almost every hurricane that’s hit or threatened Florida in the last 173 years. The state is in such a vulnerable position that it’s kind of hard to believe that it’s been almost ten years since they last experienced a direct strike from a hurricane.Ībove is a map showing the track of every hurricane between 18 that came within 230 miles of Sebring, Florida, which is right in the middle of the state about halfway between Tampa and Lake Okeechobee. They’re just there, an ever-present part of life that residents have to watch for and occasionally worry about on a yearly basis. Hurricanes are to Florida what tornadoes are to Oklahoma and earthquakes are to California. To say that the Sunshine State has been “lucky” really is an understatement. That could change in the coming days if the forecasts hold true. Hurricane Wilma struck the southwestern tip of the state on October 24, 2005, and ever since then, this hurricane-prone panhandle has been incredibly lucky. Erika is expected to reach hurricane status with 75 mph sustained winds as it approaches South Florida on Monday.We’re fast approaching ten years since the last hurricane made landfall in Florida. That doesn’t mean Erika - the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season - will sputter out.īy the end of the week, forecast models predict that the storm will intensify. “No significant change in strength is anticipated during the next 48 hours,” the hurricane center said. And it shouldn’t get much worse anytime soon. The good news is that while Erika’s winds will be strong, they’ll be far short of historic.Įarly Thursday, the storm packed maximum sustained winds of 50 mph gusts. The hurricane center predicts 3 to 5 inches of rainfall, with as many as 8 inches in some locales. The bad news is that this means islanders and vacationers will get soaked and then some. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and both the U.S. Barthelemy, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. This progression has led forecasters to issue tropical storm warnings - meaning sustained winds of 39 mph or more are expected in the next 36 hours - for numerous island locales including Anguilla, St. Its next stop will be in and around the Virgin Islands, before brushing the northern coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday. advisory, the storm was centered about 30 miles southeast of Antigua. Erika started moving over the edge of the eastern Caribbean Sea Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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